0x491791a5567defda7Bca102d9122d67408D4E9C7-1782830033916
0x491791a5567defda7bca102d9122d67408d4e9c7
- Realised P&L
- $101.87
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $5.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.46at 0.103Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$23.46at 0.206Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$16.72at 0.067Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
- +$9.66at 0.069GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
- +$8.24at 0.703Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 17:11 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.006519808 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 17:11 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0067927053 | $10.00 |
| 09-06 08:39 | Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.008999991 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:39 | Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0057471264 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:39 | Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0013543437 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:39 | Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0015245274 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:38 | Will ByteDance have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0017823787 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:38 | Will MiniMax have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0020595699 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 15:21 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 09-03 14:30 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 14:19 | Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)? | BUY | 0.084999985 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 19:13 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.684176 | $34.21 |
| 08-07 11:25 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 22:06 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 07-07 12:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |