cryptoalphawolf
0x486e590d781d75d377cabe9086aa20683ed86e5e
- Realised P&L
- $20.10
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 216
- Open portfolio
- $80.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded216
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$202.22at 0.090Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$67.46at 0.069Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?
- +$66.67at 0.600Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?
- +$65.35at 0.447Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?
- +$50.87at 0.579Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 17:16 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 17:11 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 08-09 17:10 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | BUY | 0.2399999856 | $10.00 |
| 08-09 17:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 08-09 17:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 17:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 17:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 16:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999979 | $30.00 |
| 07-17 16:52 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | BUY | 0.303921543 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 16:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.289999964 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 16:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 16:44 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.588 | $18.60 |
| 07-12 08:32 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8246992783 | $41.14 |
| 06-04 17:40 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |
| 06-04 17:39 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.6899999393 | $10.00 |