da66ers
0x486b4695657102f66a595701106d2dbab87f3ea7
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $149.6k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.921 | $3.3k | +$682.70 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.660 | 0.940 | $346.86 | +$103.32 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.085 | $94.94 | −$307.18 |
| MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? · No | 0.580 | 0.685 | $50.69 | +$7.77 |
| Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$716.22at 0.450Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-04-18?
- +$498.75at 0.160Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
- +$392.46at 0.380Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5
- +$279.72at 0.250Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$279.09at 0.370Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 02:49 | Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? | SELL | 0.4 | $432.80 |
| 04-11 23:48 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | SELL | 0.71 | $227.91 |
| 04-11 19:13 | Will "Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-" win Best Action Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? | SELL | 0.33 | $230.67 |
| 04-11 17:54 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 04-11 10:28 | MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.00 |
| 04-11 08:26 | Will Tochigi SC vs. Thespa Gunma end in a draw? | SELL | 0.011 | $10.02 |
| 04-11 08:00 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 04-10 02:50 | Spread: Ceará SC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $189.00 |
| 04-10 01:53 | Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? | BUY | 0.86 | $930.52 |
| 04-10 00:34 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30? | SELL | 0.53 | $74.73 |
| 04-10 00:09 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.57 | $470.25 |
| 04-09 22:34 | Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | SELL | 0.6 | $13.80 |
| 04-09 22:03 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $87.75 |
| 04-09 20:08 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30? | BUY | 0.72 | $101.52 |
| 04-09 20:00 | Will "Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-" win Best Action Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? | BUY | 0.85 | $594.15 |