0x485fF3BB5B039aB6cbfEC5dd91b8D511001B5626-1760430637187
0x485ff3bb5b039ab6cbfec5dd91b8d511001b5626
- Realised P&L
- $0.33
- Volume
- $124.25
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $12.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.960 | $10.90 | +$0.90 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.977 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No | 0.964 | 0.977 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Louisville vs. Miami · Miami | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.14at 0.700Trump approval Up or Down this week?
- +$1.27at 0.934Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$0.95at 0.840Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$0.59at 0.962Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.967Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-24 12:25 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999296 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 23:13 | Will Solana reach $210 in January? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 01-12 23:13 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 01-04 11:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96199997 | $15.00 |
| 01-04 11:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.959999616 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 11:08 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 01-04 11:07 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | BUY | 0.9639993715 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 14:44 | Ethereum all time high by October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 14:41 | 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | BUY | 0.987999996 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 14:41 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | BUY | 0.9949991244 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 02:48 | Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | BUY | 0.4689997866 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 02:36 | Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 02:36 | Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes? | BUY | 0.9489999763 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 06:50 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9419991145 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 06:49 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |