Ortolanus
0x47cf49f812c1fb5822a4009d76fbee5e843f4910
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $198.5k
- Markets traded
- 4,901
- Open portfolio
- $49.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,901
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.512Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
- +$829.36at 0.446Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$373.08at 0.596Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$313.71at 0.533Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$280.65at 0.230Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 23:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 23:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 23:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 22:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:02 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.3429999877 | $2.00 |
| 10-05 21:51 | Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.0217843348 | $1.00 |