PolyBot

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Traders

Ortolanus

0x47cf49f812c1fb5822a4009d76fbee5e843f4910

Realised P&L
$1.5k
Volume
$198.5k
Markets traded
4,901
Open portfolio
$49.85

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,901
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro? · Yes0.9000.950$10.56+$0.56
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? · Yes0.5200.540$10.38+$0.38
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? · No0.5200.540$5.19+$0.19
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1700.165$4.85−$0.15
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No0.5820.539$4.63−$0.37
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? · Yes0.7100.560$3.94−$1.06
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? · Yes0.3000.305$3.05+$0.05
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? · Yes0.0450.029$2.53−$1.47
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? · Yes0.2000.085$2.13−$2.88
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · No0.3430.329$1.92−$0.08
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes0.0220.015$0.67−$0.33
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET · Down0.4770.000$0.00−$4.70
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET · Down0.4900.000$0.00−$2.45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET · Down0.4300.000$0.00−$2.15
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET · Down0.4670.000$0.00−$4.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-05 23:01Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETBUY0.109999989$1.00
10-05 23:00Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETBUY0.219999978$1.00
10-05 23:00Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETBUY0.3899999337$1.00
10-05 22:56Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ETBUY0.16$5.00
10-05 22:49Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ETBUY0.4299998882$1.00
10-05 22:40Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETBUY0.4099998975$1.00
10-05 22:34Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETBUY0.4099998975$1.00
10-05 22:30Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ETBUY0.3499999825$1.00
10-05 22:24Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETBUY0.4799998464$1.00
10-05 22:19Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETBUY0.4599997976$1.00
10-05 22:14Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ETBUY0.4099998975$1.00
10-05 22:09Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ETBUY0.4099998975$1.00
10-05 22:04Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETBUY0.4399998592$1.00
10-05 22:02Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?BUY0.3429999877$2.00
10-05 21:51Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?BUY0.0217843348$1.00