0x47b48535197100ce3a79aae7b244f1806231f172
0x47b48535197100ce3a79aae7b244f1806231f172
- Realised P&L
- $-0.77
- Volume
- $26.57
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $8.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.460 | 0.960 | $2.09 | +$1.09 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24? · Down | 0.460 | 0.660 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.865 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.960 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? · No | 0.790 | 0.785 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.215 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.165 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.032 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.52at 0.661Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.679Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$0.27at 0.787Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?
- +$-1.01at 0.728Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$-1.03at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 05:43 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 21:42 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 13:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:36 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:28 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 21:25 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 13:24 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 05:09 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 21:01 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 13:00 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 05:00 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 20:31 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 11:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |