tennisclub
0x479d647a0b3a55b87883ee7189ebb4f165b2d469
- Realised P&L
- $11.9k
- Volume
- $938.7k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $43.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No | 0.835 | 0.935 | $36.3k | +$3.9k |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.861 | $2.5k | +$60.06 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12? · Yes | 0.969 | 0.969 | $2.4k | −$1.62 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.915 | $1.8k | −$10.00 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.890 | $4.48 | +$0.00 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.392 | 0.519 | $2.60 | +$0.64 |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.622 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.11 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.765Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$2.8kat 0.872Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$2.3kat 0.869Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.910Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
- +$514.84at 0.618Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 23:34 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.97 | $388.00 |
| 10-11 23:34 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.969 | $2.0k |
| 10-11 23:13 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.48 |
| 10-11 23:12 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.8k |
| 10-06 06:25 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8395675029 | $2.4k |
| 09-17 02:28 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.7k |
| 09-17 02:27 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.9622010928 | $5.7k |
| 09-16 12:06 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.4k |
| 09-16 12:05 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.943 | $257.06 |
| 09-16 12:04 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.9445596255 | $3.1k |
| 09-16 08:45 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $714.83 |
| 09-16 08:45 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.9458159505 | $701.72 |
| 09-15 06:47 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $3.7k |
| 09-15 06:46 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.952 | $476.00 |
| 09-15 04:15 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.9501134892 | $3.2k |