0x473cf7CC2aBF1E78033F13c647dE1Fc341040F94-1771088258313
0x473cf7cc2abf1e78033f13c647de1fc341040f94
- Realised P&L
- $616.89
- Volume
- $44.7k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $967.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.35at 0.843Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
- +$82.82at 0.031Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$49.74at 0.329Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
- +$46.86at 0.706Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$45.49at 0.770Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 07:21 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $39.60 |
| 09-18 07:19 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.047 | $39.29 |
| 08-19 19:42 | Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $6.59 |
| 08-19 19:40 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.009 | $6.75 |
| 08-15 21:14 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $42.20 |
| 08-15 21:10 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.771 | $43.21 |
| 08-11 21:10 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.784 | $43.94 |
| 08-11 21:04 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.046 | $38.46 |
| 08-11 20:55 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.094 | $182.73 |
| 08-09 12:30 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 08-08 20:47 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 08-04 23:15 | Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.32 | $25.60 |
| 08-04 20:36 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $51.80 |
| 08-04 07:39 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.981 | $381.32 |
| 07-17 10:32 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.68 | $44.02 |