PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

goodluck81

0x46ee2dcff4543e808d5ef1030348bec4ea84eb1e

Realised P&L
$-3.6k
Volume
$1.52M
Markets traded
437
Open portfolio
$2.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded437
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.1000.105$525.00+$25.00
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0640.165$394.77+$242.02
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5150.405$384.95$104.23
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.1600.115$345.00$135.00
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.4170.305$244.00$89.60
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? · Yes0.2790.161$241.31$178.91
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0180.020$240.00+$24.00
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.3390.145$145.00$194.27
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0330.116$115.50+$82.50
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · No0.5500.755$67.96+$18.41
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.0270.053$21.20+$10.40
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.0270.025$15.30$0.90
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0100.002$15.00$85.00
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.0070.005$5.50$1.50
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? · Yes0.3070.003$0.64$77.52

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-18 01:25Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.0052642913$0.54
08-18 01:24Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.009$8.75
08-16 00:01Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.0085465739$4.05
08-11 22:12Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.007$0.04
08-06 21:05Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?SELL0.001$0.71
08-05 01:07Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?BUY0.0124255197$5.84
08-05 01:04Will Vinicius Junior join Chelsea?BUY0.002$11.96
08-05 00:59Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?BUY0.009$0.37
08-05 00:56Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?BUY0.007$1.40
08-05 00:54Will Vinicius Junior join Chelsea?BUY0.001$0.08
08-05 00:54Will Vinicius Junior join Bayern Munich?BUY0.002$3.39
08-03 11:55Nothing Ever Happens: AugustBUY0.16$33.20
08-03 08:26Nothing Ever Happens: AugustBUY0.15$132.08
08-03 01:43Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.018709$18.71
07-28 06:05Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.0338362818$33.83