0x46eaba1af843c48d0f30ccc5379cfe92c65d0b42
- Realised P&L
- $3.21
- Volume
- $79.09
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $13.08
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.575 | $4.42 | +$2.42 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.815 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.540 | $2.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.605 | $1.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.145 | $0.64 | −$1.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.89at 0.370Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.89at 0.370Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.77at 0.410Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 00:30 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? | BUY | 0.619999969 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 16:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 08:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 00:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:09 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:33 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.659999918 | $1.77 |
| 08-02 07:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:09 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999257 | $1.17 |
| 08-01 14:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 05:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |
| 07-31 21:05 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 13:01 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-30 12:40 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |