0x46a784cd1c75196126ab6d093aeea5e6c83c270f
0x46a784cd1c75196126ab6d093aeea5e6c83c270f
- Realised P&L
- $84.41
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $234.31
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.715 | $55.35 | +$7.35 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.935 | $44.47 | +$5.47 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.705 | $30.84 | +$1.53 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.685 | $28.68 | +$28.68 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.675 | $28.67 | −$0.64 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.515 | $28.48 | −$0.83 |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.110 | $12.39 | −$35.27 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.942 | 0.944 | $5.42 | +$0.01 |
| Will FK Mornar Bar win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.28 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.84at 0.806Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$36.24at 0.729Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$26.61at 0.527Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi win on 2026-07-09?
- +$23.01at 0.832US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$21.64at 0.649Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 04:31 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7399999924 | $9.78 |
| 09-19 04:24 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7399999924 | $9.78 |
| 09-19 04:20 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7399999924 | $9.78 |
| 09-19 00:18 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.79 | $33.58 |
| 09-16 14:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-16 14:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-16 14:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-16 13:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-16 13:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-16 13:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8899999262 | $9.77 |
| 09-14 20:32 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999788 | $9.77 |
| 09-14 19:14 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999788 | $9.77 |
| 09-14 18:50 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999788 | $9.77 |
| 09-08 19:59 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $26.60 |
| 09-08 11:30 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6999999928 | $9.77 |