24559621
0x46945f72b79d6587ac8778623c2662b43e2b7f72
- Realised P&L
- $68.86
- Volume
- $18.1k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $112.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 15? · No | 0.995 | 0.999 | $108.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.924 | 0.972 | $3.05 | +$0.15 |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.091 | $1.52 | −$1.48 |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 19? · No | 0.999 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.29at 0.165Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$39.98at 0.623Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$20.78at 0.880Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$5.24at 0.659Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
- +$4.41at 0.911Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 06:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.9947144799 | $108.00 |
| 09-12 02:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 14? | BUY | 0.9974458631 | $108.00 |
| 08-28 10:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9989999917 | $108.00 |
| 08-19 06:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 19? | BUY | 0.9989998583 | $7.00 |
| 08-06 06:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.00 |
| 08-06 06:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 08:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.00 |
| 07-26 08:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.00 |
| 07-26 08:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 27? | BUY | 0.9989999724 | $35.00 |
| 07-14 06:17 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6109999978 | $64.78 |
| 06-24 06:35 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 06-24 06:34 | Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 06-12 06:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 06-12 06:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.998999901 | $10.00 |
| 06-12 06:03 | Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $12.21 |