0x467DE9DA8145798f43058535c03B188A828EC2fF-1766391434316
0x467de9da8145798f43058535c03b188a828ec2ff
- Realised P&L
- $68.43
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $96.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$136.23at 0.447US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$75.80at 0.272Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$53.03at 0.729Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$47.90at 0.411Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?
- +$29.74at 0.189Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 10:17 | Will Yisrael Beiteinu win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.100999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:16 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.4799999962 | $40.00 |
| 10-10 10:15 | Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? | BUY | 0.0335925437 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:12 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.5099999984 | $50.00 |
| 10-02 19:06 | FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? | BUY | 0.0458801497 | $10.00 |
| 07-25 13:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.2199999891 | $15.00 |
| 07-24 22:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.5536857661 | $50.00 |
| 07-21 23:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 07-21 23:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 07-21 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.5599999919 | $25.00 |
| 06-03 19:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.32 | $99.84 |
| 05-16 22:58 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $4.17 |
| 05-16 20:43 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.5301645824 | $33.00 |
| 05-16 17:39 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0139999996 | $34.00 |
| 05-16 17:38 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4 | $35.20 |