0x4662427fa6a60f91d9083dcbd6d9fdc797986876
- Realised P&L
- $-2.93
- Volume
- $74.29
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $2.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.915 | $1.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.775 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.54at 0.288Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$1.54at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$1.42at 0.420Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$1.15at 0.472Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.90at 0.532Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:31 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 01:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 13:33 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 14:45 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 06:40 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 09:44 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 13:41 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099996274 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 03:48 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 19? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 08-18 15:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-18 07:44 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 23:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 15:40 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 17? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 06:22 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-16 22:21 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-14 16:55 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |