PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

vacoolaaa

0x464e56bd1656931279b7e1006f50c2abc2d51a67

Realised P&L
$-70.1k
Volume
$3.29M
Markets traded
226
Open portfolio
$245.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded226
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8810.984$106.4k+$11.1k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9470.955$68.9k+$583.48
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.9720.977$19.7k+$109.83
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.5640.936$13.2k+$5.2k
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8210.977$12.3k+$2.0k
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8600.855$8.5k−$50.00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8200.971$4.9k+$752.50
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? · Yes0.9300.440$2.2k−$2.4k
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.3300.940$1.9k+$1.2k
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No0.8840.970$1.7k+$146.41
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No0.5680.940$1.4k+$557.92
Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026? · No0.7380.755$984.66+$21.89
Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No0.9660.979$955.68+$12.59
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes0.7760.927$742.00+$121.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.4310.964$486.56+$268.86

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 19:37Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?BUY0.7323537147$222.78
10-11 14:38Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?BUY0.65$195.00
10-11 13:55Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.66$495.00
10-10 18:40Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.27$297.00
10-10 16:00Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?BUY0.408423$40.84
10-10 12:00Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.77$3.9k
10-09 16:13Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.42$420.00
10-09 14:10Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.42$420.00
10-09 12:16Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.95$78.30
10-09 12:14Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.95$3.8k
09-18 16:30UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)BUY0.75$1.5k
09-18 16:29Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.6$179.11
09-18 16:28Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.87$464.48
09-18 16:28Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.966$83.24
05-08 18:18Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?BUY0.5332996235$5.0k