0x45e0543fEb1CE23c43222d3478FE1dbd2fcbc059-1778266048202
0x45e0543feb1ce23c43222d3478fe1dbd2fcbc059
- Realised P&L
- $-58.97
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $9.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.053 | $4.82 | −$5.18 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.704 | 0.042 | $4.37 | −$69.63 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.19 |
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.74 |
| 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.402 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$159.15at 0.730Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$25.43at 0.245US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$4.71at 0.700US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$-4.48at 0.071Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
- +$-10.19at 0.118Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 13:43 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1085984523 | $11.37 |
| 07-24 11:32 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7642679882 | $80.00 |
| 07-11 22:15 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.402499984 | $10.00 |
| 06-08 18:39 | Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.73 |
| 06-08 18:38 | Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.18 |
| 06-08 14:25 | Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote? | BUY | 0.0681959611 | $5.00 |
| 06-08 14:18 | Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? | BUY | 0.114142529 | $10.00 |
| 06-06 16:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $122.43 |
| 05-27 21:24 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.3699999942 | $17.74 |
| 05-24 10:51 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999936 | $11.00 |
| 05-24 10:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999931 | $20.00 |
| 05-24 10:16 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $77.00 |
| 05-23 11:16 | Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 05:29 | Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.0228180262 | $2.00 |
| 05-21 05:28 | Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | SELL | 0.005 | $2.04 |