0x45Cf46DC376eF7a8fdC5c9643156Fd349602FaAf-1772352497971
0x45cf46dc376ef7a8fdc5c9643156fd349602faaf
- Realised P&L
- $-27.95
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $276.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.43at 0.692Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
- +$8.63at 0.380Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
- +$6.38at 0.500Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?
- +$6.34at 0.500Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
- +$6.30at 0.993Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-13 03:10 | Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.03 |
| 03-08 08:23 | Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $11.66 |
| 03-06 12:03 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.49 |
| 03-06 12:02 | Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.991 | $8.42 |
| 03-06 08:22 | Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $3.11 |
| 03-06 08:19 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.463 | $4.17 |
| 03-06 08:02 | Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.932 | $4.66 |
| 03-06 08:00 | Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $5.46 |
| 03-06 07:59 | GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.916 | $5.83 |
| 03-06 07:54 | Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.944 | $8.02 |
| 03-06 07:51 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $8.60 |
| 03-06 07:49 | Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.911 | $4.55 |
| 03-06 07:37 | Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.95 | $5.70 |
| 03-06 07:29 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 03-06 07:20 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.93 | $6.92 |