ChinaCartman
0x45b8135c7a58f63e0b5f9ed202548f0208321c97
- Realised P&L
- $-363.44
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $663.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.925 | 0.770 | $582.29 | −$116.92 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.981 | $68.26 | +$13.26 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.740 | $12.54 | +$2.54 |
| Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by August 15? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.94 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? · Yes | 0.548 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$515.43 |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.83at 0.692Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
- +$73.38at 0.537Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
- +$53.76at 0.736Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$24.19at 0.398Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?
- +$13.64at 0.880Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 16:20 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.9299999996 | $649.21 |
| 07-13 09:53 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 09:51 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8599999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-15 02:34 | US x China tariff agreement by June 30? | BUY | 0.9679999998 | $79.00 |
| 06-15 02:33 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 08:28 | US x China tariff agreement by May 31? | BUY | 0.9079266927 | $73.00 |
| 05-05 12:34 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.9299999995 | $68.39 |
| 03-23 06:54 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.8519999999 | $58.24 |
| 11-25 14:27 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4919977393 | $449.19 |
| 09-17 21:25 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 08-23 06:29 | Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | BUY | 0.15 | $7.59 |
| 08-23 06:29 | Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | BUY | 0.14 | $7.84 |
| 08-22 18:41 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | BUY | 0.66 | $100.00 |
| 08-22 08:12 | Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | BUY | 0.5999999998 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 20:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999989 | $55.00 |