0x455c9361a86fcd9448951b409163fb04d2fae548
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $73.2k
- Markets traded
- 332
- Open portfolio
- $23.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded332
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.035 | $23.69 | −$154.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.45 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 10? · No | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.00at 0.467Thunder vs. Spurs
- +$39.99at 0.190Will "Laptop" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?
- +$30.82at 0.792Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5?
- +$30.67at 0.830Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 19?
- +$29.39at 0.821Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 13:27 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 14? | BUY | 0.8 | $14.24 |
| 08-13 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 14? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 08-13 05:33 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 14? | BUY | 0.95 | $14.25 |
| 08-13 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 14? | BUY | 0.8099999912 | $14.72 |
| 08-12 22:45 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 12? | SELL | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 08-12 10:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 13? | BUY | 0.92 | $14.72 |
| 08-11 20:57 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 12? | BUY | 0.8399999773 | $4.45 |
| 08-11 18:19 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 77°F or below on August 12? | BUY | 0.859999994 | $14.24 |
| 08-11 16:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 77°F or below on August 12? | BUY | 0.92 | $14.72 |
| 08-11 15:22 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11? | SELL | 0.78 | $15.31 |
| 08-11 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11? | SELL | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 08-11 15:19 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11? | SELL | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 08-11 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.46 |
| 08-11 15:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11? | SELL | 0.79 | $5.96 |
| 08-11 11:10 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.7699999841 | $9.20 |