PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x451ada31c3fba4e7400a77fa721849ee95464865

Realised P&L
$50.90
Volume
$4.7k
Markets traded
515
Open portfolio
$20.58

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded515
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9500.945$4.16$0.02
LoL: EXILE esports vs BRUTE - Game 2 Winner · EXILE esports0.8101.000$3.70+$0.70
LoL: FALKE Esports vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular Season · LUA Gaming0.5701.000$2.63+$1.13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7780.740$2.56$0.13
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? · No0.8490.870$1.54+$0.04
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September? · No0.9100.920$1.52+$0.02
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on September 20? · No0.9980.998$1.50$0.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.8900.885$1.49$0.01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8900.875$1.47$0.03
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner · GLYPH0.8100.000$0.00$1.50
Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng · Michael Zheng0.8500.000$0.00$10.83
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) · Chengdu Rongcheng FC0.3000.000$0.00$1.50
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-08-01? · Yes0.7000.000$0.00$1.50
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner · Zero Tenacity0.6500.000$0.00$1.50
Spread: Celtic FC (-2.5) · Celtic FC0.4600.000$0.00$1.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 13:00Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.8899999407$1.50
09-18 12:32Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on September 20?SELL0.996$1.49
09-18 07:21Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on September 20?BUY0.998$1.50
09-18 07:21Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on September 20?BUY0.999$1.50
09-18 06:15Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 18?SELL0.993$3.04
09-17 21:30Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 18?BUY0.98$1.50
09-17 21:08Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 18?BUY0.98$1.50
09-17 16:30Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 18?SELL0.998$3.02
09-17 08:58Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 18?BUY0.99$1.50
09-17 06:06England Lions and Sri Lanka T20s: England Lions vs Sri LankaBUY0.9989996683$1.50
09-17 06:05Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on September 17?SELL0.998$1.50
09-17 04:41Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 18?BUY0.99$1.50
09-17 03:49Will Solana reach $110 on September 16?BUY0.9989996683$1.50
09-17 03:49Will Solana reach $110 on September 16?SELL0.96$1.48
09-16 17:48Will Solana reach $110 on September 16?BUY0.9699999871$1.50