treazures
0x44bfcb1d5cfe9f1e6456cd8f2ba2fb6136f7c04c
- Realised P&L
- $-77.33
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $1.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.485 | $0.81 | +$0.01 |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.105 | $0.34 | +$0.02 |
| Will "Verity" score at least 34 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.280 | $0.31 | +$0.21 |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $511,000 and $515,000 on December 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.005 | $0.01 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.20at 0.290Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$0.05at 0.180Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October?
- +$0.00at 0.520Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?
- +$0.00at 0.750Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?
- +$-0.08at 0.120Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:33 | Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 10-05 15:06 | Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $407,000 and $417,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $12.12 |
| 10-05 12:15 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | SELL | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 10-05 11:06 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 10-05 08:34 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? | SELL | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 10-05 06:50 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 06:21 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 02:03 | Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 10-05 01:57 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 10-05 00:45 | Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 10-04 23:26 | Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2? | SELL | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 10-04 22:25 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 10-04 22:24 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 96 and 100 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 10-04 22:06 | Will MrBeast's next video get at least 150 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.20 |
| 10-03 18:54 | Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |