robinss
0x44be9e938121948da7cd7169ca49984cec9a0557
- Realised P&L
- $1.90
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $303.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series? · No | 0.980 | 0.985 | $98.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No | 0.955 | 0.957 | $95.65 | +$0.15 |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? · No | 0.975 | 0.961 | $49.95 | −$0.75 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.942 | $48.02 | −$1.15 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.950 | $11.35 | −$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.04at 0.959Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$0.68at 0.979Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
- +$0.46at 0.980Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
- +$0.34at 0.981Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
- +$0.20at 0.987Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 11:39 | Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.968 | $49.37 |
| 04-16 08:47 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |