0x44acfc16be68aa7e18c6678f3c37ad1bb8e68fe6
- Realised P&L
- $-5.57
- Volume
- $58.08
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $12.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.770 | 1.000 | $2.71 | +$0.62 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.635 | $2.11 | +$0.02 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $2.07 | −$0.02 |
| Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.300 | 0.295 | $2.06 | −$0.03 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.910 | $1.62 | +$0.23 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.165 | $0.80 | −$1.29 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.380 | 0.115 | $0.63 | −$1.46 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.710 | 0.110 | $0.32 | −$1.77 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.360 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$2.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.28at 0.620Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 12:16 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7099999389 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 16:07 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999153 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 08:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.38 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 00:04 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999488 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 16:04 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.619999911 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 08:00 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2999999282 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 21:05 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.39 |
| 08-02 07:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.429999893 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 22:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7699999484 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 13:09 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3599999242 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 04:19 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 20:18 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 12:17 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-28 21:56 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-28 12:22 | Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |