yarrro
0x44549c80188ebd6bfef4b7e71927d5972a63f6bf
- Realised P&L
- $-3.8k
- Volume
- $319.9k
- Markets traded
- 613
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded613
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$283.54at 0.732Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 29?
- +$192.17at 0.639Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on March 29?
- +$189.82at 0.516Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5
- +$151.06at 0.757Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29?
- +$147.49at 0.813Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 21:57 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 09-17 21:56 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $34.40 |
| 09-17 21:38 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.966 | $9.66 |
| 09-17 18:37 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.926 | $20.84 |
| 09-16 22:39 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $34.40 |
| 09-16 22:35 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $34.20 |
| 09-16 15:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.00 |
| 09-16 15:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 09-16 15:25 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.883 | $8.83 |
| 09-16 08:18 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $9.93 |
| 09-16 08:14 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $25.80 |
| 09-15 23:04 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 09-15 23:01 | Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $62.55 |
| 09-15 22:52 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 09-15 22:38 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $18.60 |