yarrro
0x44549c80188ebd6bfef4b7e71927d5972a63f6bf
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $332.7k
- Markets traded
- 652
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded652
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$239.51at 0.854Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$147.49at 0.813Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$145.28at 0.747Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
- +$138.81at 0.791Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$138.70at 0.607Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:24 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 11-01 20:23 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 10-31 19:25 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $72.00 |
| 10-31 19:24 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 10-17 20:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $25.50 |
| 10-11 18:27 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.29 | $104.39 |
| 10-09 18:25 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.941 | $47.05 |
| 10-04 16:07 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $9.50 |
| 10-04 16:03 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.51 |
| 10-03 09:33 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.918 | $45.89 |
| 10-01 23:13 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 10-01 14:02 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $27.65 |
| 10-01 13:44 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 10-01 13:42 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $14.64 |
| 10-01 13:41 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $47.40 |