PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

yarrro

0x44549c80188ebd6bfef4b7e71927d5972a63f6bf

Realised P&L
$-3.6k
Volume
$285.1k
Markets traded
475
Open portfolio
$1.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded475
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? · Yes0.9450.971$252.46+$6.72
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9090.945$198.45+$7.45
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8200.925$138.75+$15.75
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6810.675$137.98$1.19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8400.855$128.25+$2.25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · Yes0.8760.845$122.54$4.52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes0.8600.998$106.03+$14.61
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes0.6400.735$95.42+$12.37
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.4060.380$93.56$6.44
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? · No0.9430.978$87.97+$3.13
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.6080.700$77.00+$10.10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2630.205$73.80$20.80
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Yes0.3490.570$64.69+$25.10
Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026? · Yes0.9710.972$29.14+$0.01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.9630.960$28.79$0.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 22:22U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?SELL0.004$0.64
07-31 08:35Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.232$23.20
07-30 21:36Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.952$47.59
07-30 21:35Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.947$12.74
07-30 21:35Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.947$9.47
07-30 19:24U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?BUY0.83$83.00
07-30 13:09US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY0.963$28.89
07-29 14:05Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.767$15.34
07-29 14:05Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.767$23.01
07-29 13:00Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.95$9.50
07-29 13:00Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.95$38.00
07-29 12:59Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.048$46.56
07-28 22:07Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?BUY0.966$14.49
07-28 16:30Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.904$36.16
07-28 12:01Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.92$46.00