yarrro
0x44549c80188ebd6bfef4b7e71927d5972a63f6bf
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $285.1k
- Markets traded
- 475
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded475
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$145.28at 0.747Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
- +$142.95at 0.595Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$138.82at 0.791Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$125.49at 0.653Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on March 29?
- +$117.10at 0.837Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 22:22 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.64 |
| 07-31 08:35 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.232 | $23.20 |
| 07-30 21:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.952 | $47.59 |
| 07-30 21:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.947 | $12.74 |
| 07-30 21:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.947 | $9.47 |
| 07-30 19:24 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.00 |
| 07-30 13:09 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $28.89 |
| 07-29 14:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.767 | $15.34 |
| 07-29 14:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.767 | $23.01 |
| 07-29 13:00 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 07-29 13:00 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.95 | $38.00 |
| 07-29 12:59 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.048 | $46.56 |
| 07-28 22:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | BUY | 0.966 | $14.49 |
| 07-28 16:30 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.904 | $36.16 |
| 07-28 12:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |