0x4402d077826E5199e304a498ed924a84De8FD22a-1761930618317
0x4402d077826e5199e304a498ed924a84de8fd22a
- Realised P&L
- $366.72
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.793 | $1.5k | +$539.48 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.206 | $379.57 | −$539.48 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? · No | 0.942 | 0.963 | $213.55 | +$4.60 |
| Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.946 | 0.890 | $145.51 | −$9.17 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.40 |
| Will Santos Laguna win Liga MX? · Yes | 0.795 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.41 |
| Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.663 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.52 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.76at 0.537Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
- +$68.99at 0.896 World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?
- +$57.07at 0.778Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2025?
- +$52.67at 0.740Maduro out in 2025?
- +$50.63at 0.750Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 17:53 | Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 09-10 17:51 | Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $59.69 |
| 09-10 17:45 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $76.00 |
| 09-10 17:45 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.949 | $6.36 |
| 09-10 17:45 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.948 | $58.41 |
| 09-10 17:45 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.947 | $36.76 |
| 09-10 17:45 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.941 | $15.55 |
| 07-29 16:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.741 | $150.42 |
| 07-10 22:04 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.21 | $156.61 |
| 07-02 16:22 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.53 | $159.00 |
| 06-25 17:46 | Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.35 | $32.20 |
| 06-22 02:28 | Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9 | $37.78 |
| 06-21 17:14 | Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.53 | $23.99 |
| 06-21 16:26 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.137 | $68.50 |
| 06-21 16:25 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.137 | $33.67 |