UntitledUser1
0x43b9fb91a92b1f9c5aa6ea779f418b4e768d5db9
- Realised P&L
- $7.4k
- Volume
- $1.16M
- Markets traded
- 577
- Open portfolio
- $84.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded577
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.475US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.0kat 0.945Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.4kat 0.203Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
- +$1.4kat 0.959Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
- +$1.2kat 0.950Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 01:05 | Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.57 | $23.12 |
| 09-25 00:58 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.96 | $28.80 |
| 09-25 00:28 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat? | BUY | 0.96 | $46.08 |
| 09-24 22:10 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | SELL | 0.46 | $26.98 |
| 09-24 22:05 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | SELL | 0.976 | $12.80 |
| 09-24 20:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $45.65 |
| 09-24 19:51 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.47 | $112.80 |
| 09-24 17:32 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 09-24 14:52 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.76 |
| 09-24 14:15 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.15 |
| 09-24 08:25 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.4345848319 | $140.16 |
| 09-24 04:41 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.597 | $290.64 |
| 09-24 04:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.994 | $337.37 |
| 09-24 04:26 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.992 | $29.76 |
| 09-24 02:46 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $6.93 |