runa07901
0x438e396b3835f2e16ed76b139201cc473fe467c7
- Realised P&L
- $486.84
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $149.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar17.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · No | 0.977 | 0.973 | $66.03 | −$0.31 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.989 | 0.983 | $41.00 | −$0.27 |
| Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.963 | 0.959 | $36.26 | −$0.15 |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.939 | $5.82 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$479.70at 0.610Hurricanes vs. Capitals
- +$1.68at 0.934Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
- +$1.58at 0.962Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
- +$1.15at 0.972Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
- +$0.94at 0.977Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 07:23 | Hurricanes vs. Capitals | BUY | 0.61 | $750.30 |