0x438a9b2ddde894595df604333d3a53c2ba8dfd91
0x438a9b2ddde894595df604333d3a53c2ba8dfd91
- Realised P&L
- $2.22
- Volume
- $116.16
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $3.09
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.465 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.360 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.160 | $0.60 | −$0.60 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.037 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.016 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.31at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.349S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$2.10at 0.329SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.77at 0.410SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 06:08 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 21:40 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:34 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 02:41 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 04:56 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 20:41 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 11:31 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 03:30 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 07:07 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:06 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $107.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 23:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 04:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:45 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |