0x435e39728596a941d74ffe6b7915e90635ef3f72
0x435e39728596a941d74ffe6b7915e90635ef3f72
- Realised P&L
- $3.28
- Volume
- $147.00
- Markets traded
- 3
- Open portfolio
- $107.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded3
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.828 | 0.890 | $107.69 | +$7.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.78at 0.623Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?
- +$1.51at 0.699Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
- +$-1.01at 0.202Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 14:48 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8283471074 | $100.23 |
| 09-28 17:57 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $7.81 |
| 09-27 10:18 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $4.88 |
| 09-26 17:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 09-26 17:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |