sky886
0x4343bf61fc3d5d3f233e6b79c5c5c43cf81f8dea
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $220.4k
- Markets traded
- 753
- Open portfolio
- $33.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded753
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$203.94at 0.586Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?
- +$188.66at 0.314Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?
- +$172.48at 0.629Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 15?
- +$170.06at 0.526Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 13?
- +$167.95at 0.340Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 16:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.9895518846 | $21.27 |
| 10-01 16:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.993 | $67.23 |
| 10-01 15:58 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.9321251018 | $200.00 |
| 10-01 15:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.8568527507 | $200.00 |
| 10-01 07:30 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.0016218528 | $0.53 |
| 10-01 07:29 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0030333495 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 07:15 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.98 | $5.88 |
| 10-01 07:15 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.988 | $102.40 |
| 10-01 07:01 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.9796771375 | $200.00 |
| 10-01 05:41 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.84 | $6.72 |
| 10-01 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.83 | $6.64 |
| 10-01 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 10-01 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.8 | $14.40 |
| 10-01 05:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 10-01 05:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.84 | $8.40 |