0x42931Cf0915B23fD4df2ed880a12c0D85E83fBDc-1776171988337
0x42931cf0915b23fd4df2ed880a12c0d85e83fbdc
- Realised P&L
- $7.39
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $189.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · No | 0.961 | 0.968 | $52.95 | +$0.36 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · No | 0.942 | 0.946 | $47.27 | +$0.17 |
| Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes | 0.973 | 0.895 | $46.75 | −$4.05 |
| Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31? · No | 0.967 | 0.739 | $39.68 | −$12.24 |
| Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.981 | 0.983 | $3.15 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.947Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$1.15at 0.963Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?
- +$0.87at 0.947Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
- +$0.69at 0.950Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?
- +$0.56at 0.982Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 07:41 | Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.995 | $19.90 |