0x427ce11be5c94c19a86bbc6f53dc7527f85c4e1b
0x427ce11be5c94c19a86bbc6f53dc7527f85c4e1b
- Realised P&L
- $-112.08
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $3.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.355 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.705 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.62at 0.235Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5
- +$9.53at 0.215Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5
- +$8.74at 0.256Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5
- +$8.69at 0.367Will Peru win on 2026-06-05?
- +$8.31at 0.205Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 15:20 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:00 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:52 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:57 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:39 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 10:28 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:07 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 17:37 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7039998536 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 06:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 22:09 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299997409 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 12:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 12:43 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |