KyleHudson4215
0x425a0fa00e603dc6e4b4cd10740c4201ab1a78cb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $127.1k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $20.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.045 | $13.14 | −$36.50 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.910 | $3.64 | +$0.96 |
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.500 | $2.50 | +$1.35 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.200 | $1.00 | −$1.75 |
| Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$163.38at 0.180Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?
- +$134.55at 0.290Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
- +$126.49at 0.560Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 12)
- +$118.10at 0.512Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
- +$108.27at 0.160Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 10:11 | Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.17 | $52.70 |
| 04-27 09:48 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 04-27 09:47 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $305.80 |
| 04-24 04:18 | Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.39 | $120.90 |
| 04-24 02:43 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $230.40 |
| 04-12 20:56 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $116.96 |
| 04-12 00:29 | Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.019 | $7.77 |
| 04-12 00:28 | Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.019 | $8.97 |
| 04-11 23:55 | Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $39.56 |
| 04-11 18:58 | Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $48.84 |
| 04-11 18:57 | Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $344.47 |
| 04-11 18:07 | Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | SELL | 0.26 | $66.04 |
| 04-11 18:06 | Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | SELL | 0.26 | $104.78 |
| 04-11 17:57 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $4.00 |
| 04-11 17:56 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.75 |