LapaPirojok
0x41a0e0c289a84888fe905384c6067feed5cffab1
- Realised P&L
- $-141.65
- Volume
- $35.7k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $12.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.76at 0.969Celtics vs. Knicks
- +$1.92at 0.684Bucks vs. Pelicans
- +$1.45at 0.540Oilers vs. Kings
- +$1.29at 0.590Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27?
- +$1.18at 0.570Blue Jays vs. Rays
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 07:03 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999556 | $1.64 |
| 10-13 10:40 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.65 |
| 10-02 11:37 | Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting? | BUY | 0.8499999781 | $1.94 |
| 09-21 11:55 | Will JD Vance say "Radical" during his rally in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.8799999799 | $1.75 |
| 09-11 10:20 | Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.833 | $2.09 |
| 08-27 14:35 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.8899995318 | $1.73 |
| 08-18 10:57 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8619999799 | $1.63 |
| 08-07 15:29 | Will MTK Budapest vs. Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut end in a draw? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.84 |
| 08-01 11:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.8599999559 | $1.95 |
| 08-01 11:27 | Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.11 |
| 07-25 11:25 | Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday? | BUY | 0.6999996216 | $1.48 |
| 07-18 10:30 | Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.8299999317 | $1.58 |
| 07-11 12:00 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9769999943 | $1.54 |
| 07-03 13:28 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999809 | $1.84 |
| 06-26 13:25 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.83 |