PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

LapaPirojok

0x41a0e0c289a84888fe905384c6067feed5cffab1

Realised P&L
$-141.65
Volume
$35.7k
Markets traded
130
Open portfolio
$12.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded130
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration6.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.8600.935$2.12+$0.17
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.7900.885$1.85+$0.20
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.9740.980$1.80+$0.01
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · No0.8900.895$1.74+$0.01
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9100.965$1.74+$0.10
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No0.8800.830$1.74−$0.10
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026? · Yes0.9700.905$1.54−$0.11
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide · Dalibor Svrcina0.7300.000$0.00−$1.63
Nancy Pelosi Index Up or Down: Week of December 1 · Down0.9800.000$0.00−$2.69
Will ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.8300.000$0.00−$1.73
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15? · No0.7600.000$0.00−$1.72
Cardinals vs. Pirates · Cardinals0.5800.000$0.00−$1.62
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 24? · Down0.8100.000$0.00−$1.58
EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? · No0.8400.000$0.00−$1.69
Ethereum Up or Down on August 12? · Down0.7600.000$0.00−$1.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-24 07:03Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9099999556$1.64
10-13 10:40Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?BUY0.97$1.65
10-02 11:37Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?BUY0.8499999781$1.94
09-21 11:55Will JD Vance say "Radical" during his rally in North Carolina?BUY0.8799999799$1.75
09-11 10:20Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.833$2.09
08-27 14:35Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?BUY0.8899995318$1.73
08-18 10:57Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8619999799$1.63
08-07 15:29Will MTK Budapest vs. Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut end in a draw?BUY0.75$1.84
08-01 11:28Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.8599999559$1.95
08-01 11:27Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?SELL0.05$0.11
07-25 11:25Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?BUY0.6999996216$1.48
07-18 10:30Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-07-18?BUY0.8299999317$1.58
07-11 12:00Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?BUY0.9769999943$1.54
07-03 13:28Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?BUY0.8799999809$1.84
06-26 13:25Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?BUY0.996$1.83