0x417E6054870BcFfe992f782aa0ADEFA541FA7302-1767628963050
0x417e6054870bcffe992f782aa0adefa541fa7302
- Realised P&L
- $-94.01
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $40.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record crypto liquidation in 2026? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.082 | $17.22 | −$19.88 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.907 | 0.972 | $9.71 | +$0.65 |
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.095 | $7.60 | −$12.40 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.019 | $2.64 | −$7.36 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $1.95 | −$3.75 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.065 | $1.35 | −$8.65 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.91 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.71at 0.418Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
- +$8.11at 0.710Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?
- +$6.47at 0.672Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?
- +$5.60at 0.440S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7?
- +$3.70at 0.630Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 20:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | BUY | 0.1199999898 | $9.91 |
| 05-03 20:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | BUY | 0.0699999897 | $6.00 |
| 04-11 16:45 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $20.00 |
| 04-01 17:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999827 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 17:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0739999932 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 13:54 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 03-23 10:51 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 03-19 14:59 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $6.56 |
| 03-19 14:39 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 03-19 14:38 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 03-19 14:38 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.988 | $9.99 |
| 03-17 19:08 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.82 |
| 03-17 19:07 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.0820438088 | $8.20 |
| 03-17 18:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $9.84 |
| 03-17 18:08 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.968 | $24.20 |