CryptoFarm
0x40f04597cc03c1a271072df2872f9a8ff71da193
- Realised P&L
- $-3.3k
- Volume
- $548.9k
- Markets traded
- 451
- Open portfolio
- $4.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded451
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.817 | $3.5k | +$1.4k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.183 | $796.71 | −$1.4k |
| Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.320 | $95.68 | +$77.74 |
| Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.675 | 0.670 | $86.30 | −$0.69 |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.830 | $41.50 | −$1.00 |
| Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? · No | 0.246 | 0.285 | $36.70 | +$5.02 |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? · U 10.5 | 0.110 | 0.155 | $7.75 | +$2.25 |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.698 | 0.059 | $1.27 | −$13.73 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
| Ethos FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$597.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.750Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$982.38at 0.847Pacers vs. Magic
- +$943.24at 0.342Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$640.42at 0.968EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$580.91at 0.530Oklahoma Sooners vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 03:43 | Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.06 | $17.94 |
| 10-31 17:31 | Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $26.38 |
| 10-31 17:31 | Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.26 | $10.09 |
| 10-31 17:29 | Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $20.40 |
| 10-31 17:29 | Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.24 | $7.20 |
| 10-31 17:28 | Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $40.20 |
| 10-31 17:27 | Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.24 | $14.40 |
| 10-31 15:37 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 10-31 15:37 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 10-31 15:33 | Will the San Francisco 49ers have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? | BUY | 0.85 | $42.50 |
| 10-31 15:32 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? | BUY | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 10-27 12:38 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.0k |
| 10-25 20:34 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.1002075 | $76.16 |
| 10-09 18:36 | Ethos FDV above $35M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3456682872 | $248.14 |
| 10-09 11:48 | Ethos FDV above $35M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6542489412 | $111.22 |