PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x40b5E3e16a3Fa23942F563B570aa74287466596D-1745875788773

0x40b5e3e16a3fa23942f563b570aa74287466596d

Realised P&L
$22.62
Volume
$73.3k
Markets traded
240
Open portfolio
$829.01

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded240
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration38.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? · No0.6320.700$318.18+$30.65
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · No0.4040.370$304.32$28.17
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? · Yes0.2790.125$74.22$91.64
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No0.7000.695$69.49$0.51
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? · No0.7200.760$45.60+$2.40
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4590.185$6.79$10.05
Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes0.6290.080$4.25$29.18
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No0.6600.385$3.85$2.75
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? · Yes0.5000.230$2.30$2.70
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1690.000$0.00$33.80
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$0.18
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1110.000$0.00$22.20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00$17.40
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET · Down0.6800.000$0.00$5.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0860.000$0.00$17.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 20:04Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETBUY0.9099999827$10.00
07-31 20:02Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETSELL0.33$3.00
07-31 20:00Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETBUY0.549999956$5.00
07-31 19:58Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ETBUY0.4$5.00
07-31 19:56Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ETSELL0.59$13.40
07-31 19:55Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ETBUY0.4399999894$10.00
07-31 19:54Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETSELL0.76$19.49
07-31 19:53Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETBUY0.389999986$10.00
07-31 19:52Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETSELL0.46$5.90
07-31 19:50Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETBUY0.3899999774$5.00
07-31 19:49Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETBUY0.2599998648$1.00
07-31 19:46Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETSELL0.44$7.85
07-31 19:45Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETBUY0.2799999731$5.00
07-31 19:43Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETBUY0.6799999728$5.00
07-31 19:42Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETSELL0.79$5.57