PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x40b5E3e16a3Fa23942F563B570aa74287466596D-1745875788773

0x40b5e3e16a3fa23942f563b570aa74287466596d

Realised P&L
$173.32
Volume
$75.6k
Markets traded
248
Open portfolio
$365.05

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded248
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? · Yes0.2790.225$133.59−$32.27
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.6400.645$75.86+$0.59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3100.295$59.00−$3.00
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5300.545$54.50+$1.50
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? · No0.7200.420$25.20−$18.00
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? · Yes0.5000.570$5.70+$0.70
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No0.6600.565$5.65−$0.95
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4590.120$4.40−$12.44
Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes0.6290.021$1.14−$32.29
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1690.000$0.00−$33.80
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00−$0.18
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1110.000$0.00−$22.20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00−$17.40
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET · Down0.6800.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0860.000$0.00−$17.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 21:36Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?BUY0.64$75.28
09-04 06:30Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.51$10.20
09-04 06:30Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.5291724595$127.89
09-04 06:30Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.52$20.80
09-04 06:28Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.52$156.00
09-04 06:28Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.49$12.79
09-04 06:28Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?BUY0.48$9.60
09-04 06:26Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?BUY0.8079998$40.40
09-04 06:25Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?BUY0.807$6.34
09-04 06:24Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?BUY0.67$36.85
09-03 00:02Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?SELL0.9902647658$48.62
09-02 09:31Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.53$53.00
09-02 09:29Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.31$62.00
09-02 07:44Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?BUY0.26$25.05
09-02 07:43Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?BUY0.891$43.75