0x40a53f6a11da87890320969ed13465da8834454c
0x40a53f6a11da87890320969ed13465da8834454c
- Realised P&L
- $0.06
- Volume
- $198.84
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $5.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.415 | $1.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.560 | $1.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · No | 0.506 | 0.503 | $0.99 | −$0.00 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.600 | 0.550 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · No | 0.640 | 0.210 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 03:56 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.5059998937 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:59 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:32 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:31 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:31 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 18:30 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:19 | Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 02:18 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 18:18 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:42 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 12:00 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 03:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:20 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:12 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7989999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:11 | Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |