0x409E6a322bCC9ECE18F4750cf2e6853A4A284064-1768796297651
0x409e6a322bcc9ece18f4750cf2e6853a4a284064
- Realised P&L
- $-160.68
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $69.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.276 | $18.72 | −$3.67 |
| Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.630 | $10.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.785 | $10.47 | +$0.47 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.594 | 0.598 | $10.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? · No | 0.730 | 0.725 | $9.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.365 | $9.86 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.64at 0.096Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
- +$26.00at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
- +$18.45at 0.261Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
- +$15.60at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
- +$15.30at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:46 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $9.33 |
| 11-02 02:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.296 | $7.39 |
| 11-02 01:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 01:22 | Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 23:13 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 23:13 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 23:12 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 17:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.3979999864 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 16:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.1379999964 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 15:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | SELL | 0.473 | $48.70 |
| 11-01 15:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.2950246396 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 15:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.346 | $3.62 |
| 11-01 14:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.3713315966 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 14:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.3819999923 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 13:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.4939999995 | $10.00 |