NothingEverHappens12
0x407d04dacce5aba2e397cfc4bacd8ef044e2efcd
- Realised P&L
- $581.02
- Volume
- $47.1k
- Markets traded
- 291
- Open portfolio
- $998.89
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded291
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.67at 0.731Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
- +$87.35at 0.870Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$47.98at 0.660Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
- +$45.88at 0.159Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
- +$43.62at 0.363Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:32 | Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 21:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5829999545 | $3.00 |
| 11-01 20:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $15.00 |
| 11-01 20:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $10.57 |
| 11-01 18:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 16:29 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.87 |
| 11-01 14:54 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 14:33 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 14:33 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1099999951 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 11:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $10.70 |
| 11-01 11:33 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9730269726 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 11:31 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999978 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 01:17 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.961034149 | $80.00 |
| 11-01 01:15 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $11.70 |
| 10-31 22:43 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6420894515 | $5.00 |