benboben
0x405e39c9e9e8884b869d5616a71bddf76001de7e
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $212.7k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $560.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.365 | $182.50 | −$172.50 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.450 | 0.390 | $146.25 | −$22.50 |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.529 | 0.225 | $84.63 | −$114.49 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.630 | 0.250 | $62.50 | −$95.00 |
| Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.393 | 0.130 | $31.59 | −$63.91 |
| Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.295 | 0.135 | $26.96 | −$32.03 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.399 | 0.125 | $25.70 | −$56.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$389.00at 0.312Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$242.50at 0.211Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 27?
- +$87.20at 0.837Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch?
- +$82.74at 0.760Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$81.50at 0.880Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 15:36 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4233333333 | $12.70 |
| 05-15 18:53 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.9779999999 | $50.00 |
| 05-15 18:51 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.9757046544 | $300.00 |
| 05-09 19:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $40.00 |
| 05-09 19:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $30.00 |
| 05-09 19:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $15.00 |
| 04-27 11:43 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 04-27 11:42 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 04-27 11:42 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.84 |
| 04-23 04:34 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 04-22 18:42 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $15.20 |
| 04-22 18:42 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |
| 04-22 18:41 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $68.40 |
| 02-13 03:18 | Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0020942396 | $1.95 |
| 02-13 03:18 | Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0197991286 | $13.86 |