0x4049f652fE11f5F9092a532f239894b512724db4-1779880903805
0x4049f652fe11f5f9092a532f239894b512724db4
- Realised P&L
- $572.26
- Volume
- $16.6k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$514.77at 0.166Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$256.82at 0.660Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$192.14at 0.347Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$75.00at 0.400Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
- +$10.90at 0.527Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 12:22 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $200.00 |
| 09-14 15:48 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.679999999 | $200.00 |
| 09-14 09:59 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.609999999 | $200.00 |
| 09-10 12:27 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 12:24 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999999 | $500.00 |
| 08-04 13:31 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1188118812 | $30.00 |
| 08-04 13:20 | Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.072699779 | $40.00 |
| 08-04 10:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $756.81 |
| 07-16 10:04 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4159999982 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 09:56 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.0369999983 | $20.00 |
| 07-16 09:54 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0529999976 | $20.00 |
| 07-16 09:53 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0089999996 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 12:21 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2399999964 | $40.00 |
| 07-06 10:45 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.5199999809 | $12.00 |
| 07-06 10:45 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |