LuckasVane
0x3fb0d286e44f9f3b349725bb8cd1344a3452a112
- Realised P&L
- $24.05
- Volume
- $14.5k
- Markets traded
- 182
- Open portfolio
- $15.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded182
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.006 | $5.92 | −$7.28 |
| Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.245 | $4.37 | −$0.63 |
| Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.011 | $2.54 | −$9.86 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.175 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.009 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.051 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win LoL Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage · G2 Esports | 0.195 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.78at 0.274Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
- +$44.13at 0.008Will Dplus Kia win the EWC League of Legends Tournament
- +$21.73at 0.044LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs
- +$15.30at 0.086Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.95at 0.740Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 01:52 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.1947229551 | $3.69 |
| 10-27 01:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.33 |
| 10-27 01:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.58 |
| 10-27 01:37 | Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.46 |
| 10-27 01:37 | Will Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.63 |
| 10-27 01:35 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.91 |
| 10-26 18:49 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7899999477 | $1.51 |
| 10-25 15:16 | LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.8899999346 | $1.36 |
| 10-25 15:15 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 10-25 15:15 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 15:14 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 10-25 15:14 | LoL: Top Esports vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 10-25 15:10 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 14:56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 14:56 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |