SmithLiam
0x3f900f5d46a00bec8916b0ba6485b7ea0476689c
- Realised P&L
- $-56.44
- Volume
- $509.73
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $28.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar · Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.830 | 1.000 | $11.81 | +$2.01 |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann · Yannick Hanfmann | 0.760 | 1.000 | $10.20 | +$2.45 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? · Yes | 0.991 | 0.974 | $6.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.378 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning · Canadiens | 0.463 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.03 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET · Up | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Bunschoten: Jay Clarke vs Louis Wessels · Jay Clarke | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.98 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Down | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 · Over | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.69at 0.765Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
- +$14.16at 0.811Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
- +$3.85at 0.912LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
- +$2.12at 0.824Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5
- +$1.55at 0.854Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 15:27 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? | BUY | 0.9909999993 | $7.00 |
| 07-14 08:36 | Bunschoten: Jay Clarke vs Louis Wessels | BUY | 0.7899999913 | $9.98 |
| 07-14 08:36 | Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann | BUY | 0.7599999843 | $7.75 |
| 07-14 08:35 | Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar | BUY | 0.8299999924 | $9.80 |
| 06-21 07:08 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $9.89 |
| 06-21 07:08 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 06-21 07:08 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.85 | $9.01 |
| 06-21 07:07 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 05-20 07:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.6 | $40.00 |
| 05-20 07:56 | LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $40.00 |
| 05-20 07:55 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.3779999947 | $20.00 |
| 05-18 11:52 | Spread: Thunder (-14.5) | BUY | 0.7599999947 | $80.00 |
| 05-18 11:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $60.00 |
| 05-18 11:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.9199999853 | $30.00 |
| 04-20 20:50 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | BUY | 0.3799999852 | $8.89 |