0x3f1e1cD502C20F42683fE39D59Cf5D786aF4F362-1768176699117
0x3f1e1cd502c20f42683fe39d59cf5d786af4f362
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $225.6k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $87.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.018 | $87.50 | −$362.50 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$890.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET · Down | 0.504 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$849.98 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.12 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$710.00 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.869 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$496.00 |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.871 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.1kat 0.309Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
- +$10.9kat 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
- +$10.7kat 0.583Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$9.6kat 0.556Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
- +$9.0kat 0.352Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 05:00 | Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | BUY | 0.9191398108 | $1.9k |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5029560994 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5004980431 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 08:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 06-25 23:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 06-23 04:45 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.5k |
| 06-20 19:12 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.8k |
| 06-20 19:11 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.7k |
| 06-20 19:11 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.67 | $1.3k |
| 06-17 10:03 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.0k |
| 06-16 02:58 | Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8485890461 | $187.16 |
| 06-15 14:17 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.62 | $496.00 |