hormuz-tracker
0x3eda29dcac6fd5a7a6955b394581152b27a1daee
- Realised P&L
- $-678.17
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $901.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.165 | $375.81 | −$189.95 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.135 | $270.00 | −$200.00 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.337 | 0.155 | $255.27 | −$300.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.23at 0.062NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$-40.00at 0.360Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 16:57 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2483962049 | $565.76 |
| 08-20 05:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0617913574 | $168.00 |
| 08-18 04:58 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $140.00 |
| 08-17 15:21 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $180.00 |