darik0200
0x3eb89a6604bc4da72ac2f680200c3e421bf77b06
- Realised P&L
- $-514.93
- Volume
- $47.9k
- Markets traded
- 476
- Open portfolio
- $15.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded476
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.004 | $10.50 | −$43.50 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.581 | 0.439 | $3.77 | −$1.23 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.032 | $1.05 | −$3.95 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.069 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.87at 0.142Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
- +$73.76at 0.120Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$58.57at 0.300Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$50.00at 0.100Iran leadership change by April 30?
- +$45.20at 0.200US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 15:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.97 |
| 09-24 16:21 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 09-24 16:21 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5809999986 | $5.00 |
| 09-23 14:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 16:57 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.2999999994 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 16:55 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 16:53 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5209999448 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 08:31 | Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 16:52 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 16:52 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 16:51 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 06:07 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 16:04 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 2? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 14:05 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 2? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |