seneca1337
0x3e940408e48f247fc09613c48c2636c34e5b79a1
- Realised P&L
- $162.23
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 389
- Open portfolio
- $112.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded389
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.905 | 0.969 | $58.15 | +$3.84 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.889 | 0.956 | $23.90 | +$1.68 |
| Will HSBC fail by end of 2026? · No | 0.955 | 0.978 | $21.48 | +$0.48 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.942 | 0.967 | $4.83 | +$0.12 |
| Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.967 | $2.87 | +$0.20 |
| Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026? · No | 0.952 | 0.971 | $0.99 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.67at 0.933Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$10.09at 0.916Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$5.33at 0.962Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
- +$5.16at 0.880Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?
- +$4.88at 0.944Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 20:40 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-15? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $9.93 |
| 08-29 12:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $4.96 |
| 08-17 20:19 | Exact Score: Casa Pia AC 3 - 1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:17 | Exact Score: Casa Pia AC 1 - 1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:13 | Will Samsunspor win on 2026-08-17? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 08-17 20:12 | Exact Score: Samsunspor 3 - 0 Göztepe SK? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:12 | Exact Score: Samsunspor 0 - 1 Göztepe SK? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:11 | Exact Score: Samsunspor 0 - 0 Göztepe SK? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:10 | Exact Score: UD Almería 0 - 2 CD Eldense? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:10 | Exact Score: UD Almería 0 - 1 CD Eldense? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-17 20:08 | Exact Score: UD Almería 0 - 0 CD Eldense? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-02 18:55 | Exact Score: SK Brann 2 - 0 Rosenborg BK? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-02 18:53 | Exact Score: SK Brann 1 - 0 Rosenborg BK? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-02 18:53 | Exact Score: SK Brann 1 - 1 Rosenborg BK? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |