zelot
0x3e8df037a6b73ad914aa08e87a27377badaa9c26
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 238
- Open portfolio
- $518.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded238
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · No | 0.250 | 0.265 | $248.85 | +$14.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.590 | 0.635 | $152.92 | +$10.92 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.315 | $63.00 | +$5.00 |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? · Yes | 0.642 | 0.675 | $42.07 | +$2.07 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.210 | 0.215 | $12.07 | +$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.10at 0.750Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$116.67at 0.720US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$40.85at 0.710Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$35.00at 0.300Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
- +$27.04at 0.270Will April 2024 show an increase of greater than 1.31°C?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 07:42 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 09-21 07:41 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.997 | $99.69 |
| 09-21 07:40 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.99620786 | $498.10 |
| 09-19 13:53 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2500952279 | $234.85 |
| 09-19 13:49 | EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? | BUY | 0.6418136627 | $40.00 |
| 09-19 13:43 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $11.79 |
| 09-19 13:40 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.766 | $76.59 |
| 09-19 13:37 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.75 | $375.00 |
| 09-19 13:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 05-29 11:53 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 05-25 21:50 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $40.00 |
| 05-25 11:55 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 05-25 11:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999998 | $300.00 |
| 05-04 15:43 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.2858457026 | $30.00 |
| 05-03 17:48 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |