0x3e75d3646a28f8a89384fbea46469b222e80ab84
0x3e75d3646a28f8a89384fbea46469b222e80ab84
- Realised P&L
- $-446.49
- Volume
- $16.9k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $54.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.041 | $20.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.403 | $18.30 | +$13.30 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.285 | $6.49 | −$5.82 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.175 | $5.62 | −$4.33 |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.045 | $2.19 | −$7.81 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.034 | $1.19 | −$8.76 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $0.55 | −$2.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.73at 0.110Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
- +$45.00at 0.100Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?
- +$38.23at 0.442Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$35.36at 0.220Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$34.53at 0.367Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 12:10 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2199999967 | $41.85 |
| 06-07 12:09 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.78 | $43.58 |
| 06-07 12:09 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.219999996 | $34.90 |
| 06-07 12:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $8.61 |
| 06-07 12:08 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1530295818 | $9.00 |
| 06-07 12:07 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.15 | $9.38 |
| 06-07 12:07 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.059 | $8.94 |
| 06-07 12:06 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 06-02 09:43 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.04 | $20.00 |
| 06-02 09:43 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0659999941 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 09:42 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 05:47 | EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | BUY | 0.2057794481 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 05:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 05:46 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 06-01 20:06 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? | BUY | 0.386902889 | $4.00 |